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How Accurate Are Our U.S. Freight Arrival Forecasts? A Look at June Performance

June 30, 2025

At Vizion, we believe better data leads to better decisions, especially when it comes to forecasting freight arrivals.

Our data science team recently developed a model using historical container movement data to predict how much ocean freight will arrive at U.S. ports each week. These forecasts help shippers, logistics providers, and port operators plan ahead with greater precision.

In June, we put the model to the test by comparing our weekly forecasted arrival volumes to actual throughput. The results showed consistently high accuracy at both the national level and for specific ports, despite ongoing volatility in trade patterns.

Total U.S. Port Arrivals: Forecast vs. Actual

At the national level, our forecast model performed with strong consistency. Even as vessel arrival timing shifted slightly from week to week, our predictions tracked closely with actual inbound volumes.

Port of Los Angeles (USLAX): Forecast vs. Actual

The Port of Los Angeles tends to see the most fluctuation in container arrivals. In recent weeks, this volatility has been amplified by tariff uncertainty, front-loading behavior, and shifting trade flows. Even so, our LA forecasts stayed within a reliable range and offered early insight into potential surges or slowdowns.

How We Forecast

Our forecast is built using a proprietary methodology developed by our data science team. It's a highly effective, formula-based approach grounded in rigorous analysis of historical booking data.

Here’s how it works:

  1. We analyze rolling, forward-looking bookings data, which captures freight volumes before containers arrive in the U.S.
  2. Using patterns in historical booking-to-arrival timing, we apply a custom forecasting formula that estimates how much volume is expected to land each week
  3. The formula was backtested and refined to maximize accuracy using past arrival trends, then validated against current arrivals for ongoing performance

This method allows us to forecast container volumes into any U.S. port, using real shipment intent data rather than relying solely on carrier-provided schedules or static ETAs. It's a fast, low-latency approach that gives us reliable insight days or weeks ahead of time, without waiting for vessels to hit the water.

With this foundation, we can forecast volume into any U.S. port several days or even weeks in advance. This level of insight supports:

  1. Port and terminal operators planning for throughput and yard space
  2. Shippers and 3PLs coordinating drayage and delivery schedules
  3. Analysts and planners modeling inventory flow and supply chain risk

Want to put forecasted freight volumes to work for your business? Schedule time with our team to explore how to anticipate disruption and stay competitive.

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How Accurate Are Our U.S. Freight Arrival Forecasts? A Look at June Performance

June 30, 2025

At Vizion, we believe better data leads to better decisions, especially when it comes to forecasting freight arrivals.

Our data science team recently developed a model using historical container movement data to predict how much ocean freight will arrive at U.S. ports each week. These forecasts help shippers, logistics providers, and port operators plan ahead with greater precision.

In June, we put the model to the test by comparing our weekly forecasted arrival volumes to actual throughput. The results showed consistently high accuracy at both the national level and for specific ports, despite ongoing volatility in trade patterns.

Total U.S. Port Arrivals: Forecast vs. Actual

At the national level, our forecast model performed with strong consistency. Even as vessel arrival timing shifted slightly from week to week, our predictions tracked closely with actual inbound volumes.

Port of Los Angeles (USLAX): Forecast vs. Actual

The Port of Los Angeles tends to see the most fluctuation in container arrivals. In recent weeks, this volatility has been amplified by tariff uncertainty, front-loading behavior, and shifting trade flows. Even so, our LA forecasts stayed within a reliable range and offered early insight into potential surges or slowdowns.

How We Forecast

Our forecast is built using a proprietary methodology developed by our data science team. It's a highly effective, formula-based approach grounded in rigorous analysis of historical booking data.

Here’s how it works:

  1. We analyze rolling, forward-looking bookings data, which captures freight volumes before containers arrive in the U.S.
  2. Using patterns in historical booking-to-arrival timing, we apply a custom forecasting formula that estimates how much volume is expected to land each week
  3. The formula was backtested and refined to maximize accuracy using past arrival trends, then validated against current arrivals for ongoing performance

This method allows us to forecast container volumes into any U.S. port, using real shipment intent data rather than relying solely on carrier-provided schedules or static ETAs. It's a fast, low-latency approach that gives us reliable insight days or weeks ahead of time, without waiting for vessels to hit the water.

With this foundation, we can forecast volume into any U.S. port several days or even weeks in advance. This level of insight supports:

  1. Port and terminal operators planning for throughput and yard space
  2. Shippers and 3PLs coordinating drayage and delivery schedules
  3. Analysts and planners modeling inventory flow and supply chain risk

Want to put forecasted freight volumes to work for your business? Schedule time with our team to explore how to anticipate disruption and stay competitive.

Share this blog on Linked-In: